2009 America East Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are nine members of the America East Conference, and all nine are set to participate in the 30th-annual America East Conference Tournament. The prize awarded to the winner of this event is a bid to the NCAA Tournament, and considering the fact that a team from this league is highly unlikely to ever earn an at-large dance ticket, this four-day event figures to pulsate with intensity.

Boston University has five AEC titles to its credit and a 38-24 all-time record at this event, but the Terriers, who are seeded third this season, haven't won this tourney since 2002. Vermont has captured three championships, and the second-seeded Catamounts figure to have a good shot at adding to the total. Albany is seeded seventh, so the odds of the club winning this event for a third time seem unlikely. As for UMBC, the defending champion, it is seeded sixth. The top seed is Binghamton, which is one of five league members never to win this tournament.

After the first round, quarterfinal round and semifinal round are played in consecutive days from Friday the 6th through Sunday the 8th, the championship game will not take place until Saturday the 14th, adding to the drama. While the first three rounds will take place at SEFCU Arena in Albany, New York, the title game will be held at the home venue of the highest remaining seed.

The first round on Friday pits the eighth-seeded Maine Black Bears against the ninth-seeded Hartford Hawks. These two teams split a pair of meetings during the regular season, and both of those contests were highly competitive. Hartford has won only six games all season and ranks last in the conference in both scoring offense (60.3 ppg) and scoring defense (70.5 ppg). The team has gotten dominated on the boards all season, as it is being outrebounded by nearly seven boards per contest. As for Maine, it closed out the season with four consecutive losses and figures to carry little confidence into this event. The Black Bears rank eighth in the nine-team league in turnover margin and have to take good care of the ball on Friday to advance.

The first of four quarterfinal games on Saturday the 7th pits the second- seeded Vermont Catamounts against the seventh-seeded Albany Great Danes. Albany lost seven of its last eight regular season games but did manage to beat Vermont in one of the two matchups between the teams. The Great Danes are the best free throw shooting team in the AEC and are also tops in the conference in rebounding margin, pulling down 8.4 rpg more than the opposition. Vermont is the league's top scoring team, as it is generating 77.8 ppg. Mike Trimboli (16.3 ppg), Marqus Blakely (15.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Colin McIntosh (13.2 ppg) provide the Catamounts with a tremendous trio.

Third-seeded Boston University and sixth-seeded UMBC will battle in another quarterfinal clash. Boston University boasts the league's third and fourth leading scorers in John Holland and Corey Lowe, who are generating 18.0 ppg and 16.6 ppg, respectively. The Terrier, who beat UMBC in both regular season meetings, are knocking down a league-leading 8.8. three-pointers per contest and rely heavily on their perimeter shooting. As for UMBC, it has not played nearly as well as fans hoped heading into this campaign, but the team always has a chance to win thanks to the presence of Darryl Proctor (20.0 ppg). The Retrievers, by contrast with the Terriers, are last in the league in three- pointers made, as they are knocking down only 3.7 shots per contest from behind the arc.

The winner of the first-round game between Hartford and Maine will take on top-seeded Binghamton in the quarterfinal round. The Bearcats won a share of the regular season title for the first time in their 63 years of existence, a tremendous accomplishment for the program. The club is 20-8 overall and posted a 13-3 mark against AEC opposition, including wins in all four of its matchups with Hartford and Maine. D.J. Rivera is a gifted scorer who leads the conference with 20.2 ppg. Rivera's squad doesn't lead the AEC in an major statistical category, surprising for a top seed, but the Bearcats do most things well and simply know how to win.

The fourth and final matchup of the quarterfinal round pits the fourth-seeded New Hampshire Wildcats against the fifth-seeded Stony Brook Seawolves. New Hampshire did win both regular season matchups with Stony Brook, the most recent of which was decided by one point in overtime last week. The Wildcats are second in the conference in scoring defense but second to last in scoring offense. They are last in free throw percentage, a stat that is definitely concerning since this quarterfinal game figures to be close. As for Stony Brook, it is tops in the league in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 60.4 ppg. The Seawolves also lead the AEC in steals and turnover margin, but it remains to be seen if they will be able to generate enough offense to defeat the Wildcats.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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Colts give the ‘D’ its due

The Indianapolis Colts know that winning the Super Bowl last season put a huge target on their backs, and they expect opponents to go all-out to knock them from the top of the mountain.

They’ll get their first test from the New Orleans Saints this Thursday night. The defending champs had nothing but good things to say about the New Orleans defense this past week, praising their opponents’ pass rush and run-stopping abilities.

"They play very aggressively," head coach Tony Dungy told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "They play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and they come after you. They have good pass rushers, and they're going to try to pressure us, I'm sure."

Both center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning gave New Orleans’ front four props, admitting keeping guys like Will Smithand Charles Grant contained would be a tall task for the offensive line.

New Orleans ranked second in total defense during the preseason at a sportsbook, allowing just under 233 yards per game. Last season, the defense finished 11th in the league after giving up 307.3 yards and 20.1 points per contest.

Not so sound on the ground

If Indianapolis' efficient offense has a weakness it has to be its running attack. The Colts one-two-punch of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai is no longer, leaving the bulk of the carries to Addai, the second-year back out of LSU.

Former Saskatchewan Roughrider Kenton Keith was named Addai’s backup this week after beating out DeDe Dorsey for the second-string position. Indy has only three backs on the roster right now, including fullback Luke Lawton, and coach Dungy is aware of the thinness of his ground game. Sports Betting lines on the game can be found at BettingExpress.com

“We’ll continue to look. Luke Lawton’s done a good job for us too. So probably getting a third true tailback is something that we’d like to do,” Dungy told the Indiana Tribune-Star.

Last season, Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and scored seven touchdowns on the ground.

Brees says bring it on

Opening the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions is not the way most teams would like to kick off their year – unless you’re the New Orleans Saints or their quarterback Drew Brees. This internet Sportsbooks had the Saints as the favorites.

Brees told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he is excited to get the regular season started and the Colts are a great challenge for him and his teammates. The 28-year-old QB, entering his second season with the Saints, is expecting a wild environment in the RCA Dome this Thursday when the franchise celebrates its 2007-2007 championship.

Brees said he sees the opening game scheduling as an honor and a testament to how well New Orleans did last season. The Saints missed facing the Colts in the Super Bowl by one game, losing to the Chicago Bearsin the NFC Championship game.

"I mean, people think we can hang with these guys," Brees told reporters. "Even if they didn't, it wouldn't matter what they thought because as a team we're very confident. We know what we can do. We're not satisfied where we finished the season last year. And we've been looking forward to this opportunity for a long time."

SportsBooks ready for a shootout

Oddsmakers are preparing for some fireworks this Thursday when the NFL season kicks off. online Sportsbooks have Thursday’s total set at a whopping 52 points, accounting for two of the league’s most explosive offenses.

“This is like must-see TV,” Saints cornerback and former Colt Jason David told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s two exciting offenses with great players. You’ve got a lot of star power on offense. At any given time a big play can happen. If I was a fan, I wouldn’t miss a snap.”

New Orleans, who ranked No.1 in total offense last season, can go blow-for-blow with the Colts’ attack. Head coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes will get even better production out of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and receiver Marques Colston now that they’ve each had a season of playing together under their belts.

The Saints and Colts were the top two passing teams in the NFL last year, but while Indianapolis managed to put up almost 27 points per game, New Orleans struggled to capitalize on their efforts. The Saints ranked fifth in points per game.

“Yards are great,” running backDeuce McAllister told reporters, “but to be able to score more touchdowns would be important for us.”

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